bet on ncaa bracket
Bet on NCAA Bracket
Heres our March Madness bracket predictions strategy guide. NCAA Tournament pool tips and picks with the PoolGenius Bracket Predictor⁚ Betting Apps. Bet365 Sportsbook ... Heres the bottom line⁚ there is no such thing as a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket strategy. Its called March Madness for a reason. Latest College Basketball News.
NCAA Tournament Bracket Strategy
DollarSignCircleUnfilled Explore Betting NCAA Tournament coverage Live Bracket Expert Brackets Bracket Games By Mike McClure R.J. White Mar 14, 2023 at 4⁚52 pm ET 8 min read WATCH⁚ Five-star Darius Acuff Jr. to commit Friday Cameron Salerno 1 min read The defensive whizzes who keep coaches up at night Isaac Trotter 16 min read Dan Hurley has transformed into an Xs and Os mastermind Isaac Trotter 10 min read CBS Sports Classic⁚ HBCU Showcase set for Dec. 28 Kyle Boone 2 min read Top players who can boost their 2025 NBA Draft stock Cameron Salerno 6 min read What to expect from every Big East transfer in 2024 Isaac Trotter 33 min read Help About Us Careers Newsletters Mobile Apps Closed Captioning Privacy Policy Terms Of Use Do Not Sell My Personal Information California Notice Its officially bracket season, with the 2023 NCAA Mens Tournament set to kick off with the First Four Tuesday before wall-to-wall coverage takes over the national stage on Thursday. By now youve probably started to fill out your brackets at CBS Sports and potentially made some of your decisions based upon the data available in our bracket picks game, including the SportsLine Optimal Bracket and SportsLine Upset Bracket .
However, there is another level to bracket strategy you should consider before your pools lock at lunchtime on Thursday that involves how the betting market is rating both teams.
This concept involves looking at the money lines for each matchup and using the SportsLine betting calculator to determine the implied odds each side wins the game. Heres how you do it⁚ Enter the money line for a team (i.e., -110) in the American Odds section of the form. Once you click out of the field, the calculator will give you more information related to those odds, including the implied winning percentage in the final field labeled Implied Odds.
In the case of a -110 money line, those implied odds read 52.38, meaning that the corresponding team has a 52.38 chance to win as determined by the market. The true odds for a matchup will always be slightly lower than the implied odds calculation to account for the juice the sportsbooks are building into each line; for example, that -110 money line would likely be matched by another -110 money line on the other team in the matchup by most sportsbooks, but mathematically both teams cannot have a 52.38 chance to win.
For the purposes of finding leverage, were going stick with the odds implied by the money line rather than going the extra step to find true odds. Since were using this tool to make a comparison across the entire spectrum of first-round matchups, the important factor is remaining consistent with the data we use rather than which data set we choose.
Now that we know how to find the implied odds as set by the betting market, the next step is to compare those odds to the distribution of selections for each team in each matchup in the CBS Sports bracket game. This step is also simple, as that information is displayed at the top of each matchup analysis window under the field Users Pick.
For example, as of this writing 99 of brackets are listing Houston as the winner of the teams first-round matchup against Northern Kentucky, a lopsided split that is certain to remain so when brackets lock on Thursday. Houston is -3500 to win on the money line, and the SportsLine betting calculator tells us that Houston has a 97.22 chance to win. Both the betting market and CBS bracket games participants make Houston a near certainty to win and advance out of the first round.
But there are matchups where the betting market and CBS bracket games participants dont agree, or agree far less than youd expect, and thats where we can find the leverage needed to find picks in the first round that are more likely to happen than the rest of your competition is crediting. What do we look for when finding leverage? We want a team that the market says should win at least 35 of the time that the public (brackets) think wins at least 7 less often than the market. Were going to start with the 5 vs. 12 matchups, which are typically the most popular for finding upsets, ranked with the biggest edge first. Then well look at the remaining top four leverage plays available in the first round.
NCAA Tournament Bracket Tips
Only 27 of CBS Sports brackets have selected Drake to beat Miami, which translates to a 270 money line price. However, Caesars sportsbooks odds have Drake at 115 on the money line, which implies a 46.5 win probability. That makes the Bulldogs significantly more likely to advance than the public or average bracket expects and our top leverage play of the first round.
Drake enters the tournament on a 16-2 hot streak with an excellent group of shooters that can challenge any team when those players are in a groove. If the Bulldogs continue to play sound basketball, they could get over the finish line in what is expected to be a much closer game than the bracket competitions are anticipating in aggregate.
Unlike with Drake, this play will likely be reserved for those bracket competitors willing to take on a fair amount of risk while chasing the best leverage plays available. Just 17 of CBS Sports brackets have selected Oral Roberts to beat Duke, which translates to a 488 money line price. However, Caesars sportsbooks odds have Oral Roberts at 240 on the money line, which implies 29 win probability.
In the grand scheme of things, 29 doesnt inspire a lot of confidence, but its a pick that should pay off in a bigger way than almost any other if the market has correctly priced the win probability for the Golden Eagles against Duke. Oral Roberts brings a 17-game winning streak into the NCAA Tournament to face a Duke team navigating its first March without Mike Krzyzewski in a very long time.
As of now, 28 of CBS Sports brackets have selected Charleston to beat San Diego State٫ which translates to a 257 money line price. Caesars sportsbooks odds provide a solid edge in the matchup by listing Charleston at 185 on the money line٫ which implies 35 win probability.
Charleston posted a 20-game win streak earlier in the season and is 10-0 in its last 10 games entering the tournament, and the Cougars ability to fire away from 3-point range could help conquer the Aztecs strong defensive profile. This one is on the edge of our profile for leverage plays, so be sure to monitor the data — both the betting line and the bracket games splits — as first tip draws near.
Heres a matchup where bracket participants appear to be slightly overrating the chances of an upset, as 39 of CBS Sports brackets have selected VCU to beat Saint Marys, which translates to a 156 money line price. Caesars sportsbooks odds have VCU at 160, which implies 38.5 win probability.
This makes VCU the worst 12 vs. 5 matchup, as the bracket odds are dead on the betting market. In a hyper efficient bracket pool, we would expect to see nearly all matchups look similar to this one. However, there are clearly better opportunities for leverage in other 5 vs. 12 matchups, as well as throughout the rest of the first round, which well cover now.
Just 38 of CBS Sports brackets have selected Utah State in the Aggies matchup with Missouri, which translates to a 163 money line price. However, Caesars sportsbooks odds have Utah State at -130, whi [...]
NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions
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